Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 7.9 | 10.4% | 72 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.0 | 10.6% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 18.1 | 23% | 160 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 16.3 | 20.3% | 141 | 1.04% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 10.7 | 13.7% | 95 | 0.91% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 8.9 | 10.1% | 70 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.1 | 7.8% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 4.3% | 30 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 118 | 78.0 | 100% | 695 | 0.66% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 20223 | 66805 | 606 | 161 | 704 |
| Dec 23 | 20328 | 66915 | 607 | 161 | 643 |
| Dec 24 | 20327 | 67041 | 608 | 161 | 544 |
| Dec 25 | 20328 | 67067 | 608 | 161 | 482 |
| Dec 26 | 20406 | 67081 | 608 | 161 | 472 |
| Dec 27 | 20542 | 67139 | 612 | 161 | 536 |
| Dec 28 | 20660 | 67214 | 615 | 162 | 592 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 13594 | 38873 | 584 | 139 | 605 |
| Dec 23 | 13594 | 38946 | 585 | 139 | 530 |
| Dec 24 | 13593 | 39011 | 585 | 139 | 495 |
| Dec 25 | 13593 | 39022 | 585 | 139 | 407 |
| Dec 26 | 13594 | 39036 | 585 | 139 | 324 |
| Dec 27 | 13682 | 39070 | 586 | 140 | 323 |
| Dec 28 | 13768 | 39108 | 592 | 141 | 378 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.1 | 14.1% | 53 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 3.1 | 8% | 30 | 0.36% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 5.1 | 14.4% | 54 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 5.7 | 16.2% | 61 | 0.73% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 6.3 | 17.3% | 65 | 0.84% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 4.4 | 12.2% | 46 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 3.4 | 11.2% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.6 | 6.6% | 25 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 86 | 35.9 | 100% | 376 | 0.58% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 10316 | 25884 | 457 | 114 | 199 |
| Dec 23 | 10342 | 25951 | 457 | 114 | 213 |
| Dec 24 | 10359 | 25988 | 460 | 114 | 214 |
| Dec 25 | 10378 | 26009 | 460 | 114 | 206 |
| Dec 26 | 10395 | 26030 | 462 | 114 | 199 |
| Dec 27 | 10419 | 26066 | 462 | 115 | 204 |
| Dec 28 | 10451 | 26088 | 465 | 115 | 208 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 3.8% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 1.9 | 8.7% | 18 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 5.9 | 24.5% | 51 | 1.13% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 3.9 | 18.8% | 39 | 0.72% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.0 | 10.6% | 22 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.6 | 10.6% | 22 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.6 | 12.5% | 26 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.4 | 10.6% | 22 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 32 | 22.3 | 100% | 208 | 0.46% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 21507 | 78958 | 798 | 139 | 771 |
| Dec 23 | 21664 | 79198 | 801 | 139 | 886 |
| Dec 24 | 21710 | 79376 | 802 | 139 | 842 |
| Dec 25 | 21710 | 79407 | 802 | 139 | 749 |
| Dec 26 | 21797 | 79438 | 803 | 139 | 751 |
| Dec 27 | 21895 | 79588 | 807 | 139 | 789 |
| Dec 28 | 22106 | 79788 | 808 | 139 | 941 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 28 | 9.3 | 9.5% | 89 | 0.75% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 10.6 | 11.8% | 111 | 0.67% |
| 20-29 | 45 | 26.7 | 26.4% | 248 | 1.17% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 20.9 | 20.3% | 191 | 1.4% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 13.3 | 13.7% | 129 | 0.95% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 8.9 | 10.1% | 95 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 5.7 | 5.5% | 52 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.6 | 2.8% | 26 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 211 | 97.9 | 100% | 941 | 0.8% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 69402 | 451990 | 2199 | 406 | 4061 |
| Dec 23 | 69901 | 453127 | 2205 | 409 | 4281 |
| Dec 24 | 69981 | 453883 | 2214 | 409 | 3717 |
| Dec 25 | 69981 | 454033 | 2214 | 409 | 3238 |
| Dec 26 | 70225 | 454426 | 2214 | 409 | 2902 |
| Dec 27 | 71073 | 454907 | 2224 | 409 | 3256 |
| Dec 28 | 71668 | 455419 | 2239 | 409 | 3730 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 53 | 39.6 | 9.4% | 352 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 98 | 65.6 | 16.3% | 609 | 0.86% |
| 20-29 | 168 | 115.9 | 29.6% | 1104 | 1.06% |
| 30-39 | 102 | 64.3 | 17.1% | 636 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 77 | 45.0 | 12.5% | 467 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 51 | 27.9 | 7.7% | 287 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 19.0 | 4.7% | 176 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 18 | 10.9 | 2.7% | 99 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 595 | 388.0 | 100% | 3730 | 0.68% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | 1078491 | 3798917 | 53216 | 10958 | 44862 |
| Dec 23 | 1083442 | 3805990 | 53368 | 11017 | 44977 |
| Dec 24 | 1085565 | 3813907 | 53514 | 11028 | 41872 |
| Dec 25 | 1086288 | 3815701 | 53525 | 11029 | 37027 |
| Dec 26 | 1088992 | 3817663 | 53539 | 11029 | 34801 |
| Dec 27 | 1095891 | 3821603 | 53749 | 11082 | 37510 |
| Dec 28 | 1103754 | 3827177 | 54008 | 11119 | 43702 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 696 | 426.0 | 9.9% | 4320 | 0.67% |
| 10-19 | 1027 | 637.3 | 14.4% | 6282 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 1610 | 919.0 | 19.4% | 8474 | 1.12% |
| 30-39 | 1366 | 794.9 | 17.7% | 7721 | 1.02% |
| 40-49 | 1130 | 612.9 | 13.7% | 5973 | 0.85% |
| 50-59 | 986 | 530.4 | 11.9% | 5221 | 0.64% |
| 60-69 | 625 | 345.4 | 7.9% | 3460 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 420 | 230.1 | 5.1% | 2237 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 7863 | 4497.7 | 100% | 43702 | 0.75% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10721"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges